June 12: The Point of No Return. EU Migration Pact—5 Harsh Changes That Will Affect You

 

Greetings to everyone. Friends, on June

12, 2026, that is in less than two

weeks, the new pact on migration and

asylum will come into force in the

European Union. And this is the biggest

reform of the EU migration system in the

last, just imagine 20 years. And there

is no good news here for Ukrainians

living in the EU.

Most Ukrainians living in Germany,

Poland, the Czech Republic, France, and

so on have never even heard about this

pact or think that it doesn't concern

them at all. The short answer, if you

currently have temporary protection,

then right now, of course, this doesn't

concern you. But there are three

situations when, first of all, it

already concerns you now, and after

March 2027, it will concern everyone

without exception. in the case that the

EU does not extend temporary protection.

So today we will discuss what is

changing, for whom it is changing, and

this is important for all Ukrainians

living in Europe to know. And I want to

remind you that's more than 5 million

Ukrainians.

Background of EU Migration Rules

Let's start with the first point. Why is

this pact important at all? This is a

joint European pact on migration and

asylum. This is an agreed set of rules

that are meant to unify the approaches

of the 27 European Union countries to

migration.

The member countries have agreed to

increase pressure on rejected asylum

seekers to return and to simplify

deportation procedures from the EU

territory. It was also agreed to create

so-called return hubs in third countries

outside the EU. This is for those people

whose country of origin is difficult to

determine or who cannot be sent back or

deported.

Yes, to the country of origin for

various reasons because of war, because

of danger to their own lives and so on.

But still these people will be expelled

from the territory of the EU and will be

placed in third world countries and will

live in some I don't know enclaves in

enclaves. Before this, each EU country

had its own rules. And as a result,

people moved between countries looking

for better conditions, so-called

secondary movements. That's it. Poland,

for example, refused such people. So,

the person went to the Czech Republic.

If the Czech Republic refused, they went

to Germany. And it was precisely the

lack of a common approach that created

tension at the Polish Bellarusian

border.

when Bellarusian and Russian security

services brought and continue to bring

illegal migrants from African, Asian and

Middle Eastern countries and sent them

to storm the Polish border. Then these

people, agents, including Ukrainian

ones. Yes. Who were hired by those same

Bellarians and Russians offered them

easy money and were supposed to deliver

them to Germany. Yes. And already on the

territory of Germany, they applied for

asylum. And that's why there were a lot

of cases of these illegal migrants being

caught as well as the drivers.

The migrants were sent back to Bellarus

and the drivers were deported to their

country of origin. If they were

foreigners, if they were Polish, they

were simply put in prison. Oh, and this

very problem that is fragmentation and

secondary movements between the

countries of the European Union is one

of the main reasons for adopting the

pact. The pact closes these loopholes.

The systems are integrated. The database

becomes shared and the decision of one

country is visible to other countries as

well.

Key Changes in the Migration Pact

And let's talk about the five main

changes that await us after June 12th.

The first change is accelerated

procedures at the borders. The new pact

introduces mandatory accelerated border

procedures for people from countries

with a low refugee recognition rate. A

decision will be made in 12 weeks

instead of 6 months or sometimes it even

took years. For Ukrainians, this means

that if someone applies for asylum after

the end of temporary protection, the

procedure will be much faster than

before. This is good in some ways but

bad in others because a quick decision

is good. Yes. But on the other hand, if

you get denied, it will happen faster

and you will be deported to your country

of origin, that is to Ukraine. Change

number two is a shared database and

tracking. New systems such as ES and

ETSs, which we have already talked about

with you 150 times,

will ensure that only people with valid

status will be able to travel and

return. The systems track entries and

exits through fingerprints and facial

scans instead of passport stamps. And

there have also been cases when a person

could enter through one country, leave

through another, and depending on where

and what happens at which border,

certain decisions are made. Now, in this

way, let's say hiding from one country

or another simply won't work anymore.

What does this mean?

If your status has expired in one

country, it is visible in all EU

countries. You can no longer move and

start from scratch. The third change is

those same return hubs in third

countries. It has been agreed to create

return hubs in third countries outside

the EU for those who have been denied

protection. This means that a rejected

asylum seeker may not be sent directly

home but first to a transit center in a

third country. This mechanism is still

in development but it fundamentally

changes the system because in fact it

will allow the deportation from EU

territory even of those people who were

previously granted protection

because for example they can't return

home since there's a war in their

country. So now they will be sent to a

country where there is no war but it

won't be in the territory of the

European Union. And this is actually one

of the most revolutionary mechanisms

that this pact brings because even if

Solidarity Mechanism and Country Responses

for example temporary protection ends

and Ukrainians start applying for real

asylum on mass, they can be refused and

sent to these same hubs

purely in theory. The fourth change is a

solidarity mechanism between countries.

EU countries are now required either to

accept displaced persons from overloaded

countries or to make a financial

contribution. This lowers incentives for

secondary movements by equalizing

conditions between countries.

This is also a very interesting point

because for example Poland

uh from the very beginning said that

they reject this migration pact. They

are not going to accept any refugees for

example from Germany or France. And they

referred to the fact that millions of

Ukrainians already live in Poland. And

it was thanks to Ukrainians,

specifically with the help of Ukrainians

living in Poland, that they managed to

challenge the decision about this quota

system. And now Poland is not obligated

to accept refugees from Africa, Asia, or

the Middle East because many Ukrainians

live in Poland. So, by the way, that's

another benefit from Ukrainians living

in Poland for Poland itself. But of

course, the anti- Ukrainian

Confederation and all anti- Ukrainian

forces will never ever mention this. And

Simplified Deportations and Implications

the fifth change is simplified

deportations. Nine countries, including

Poland and the Czech Republic, have

called for simplifying the procedures

for deporting foreign criminals. The new

rules reduce the opportunities for

appeals and delaying the process.

If we are talking about Ukrainians in

Poland, we know that Ukrainians in

Poland are deported like this for

various types of violations. It might

not even be a criminal offense. It could

even be administrative violations.

There are already appropriate mechanisms

that is they simply officially make a

decision that this person their

activities threaten public order in

Poland and you can fit anything into

that and the person is immediately taken

to the Polish Ukrainian border and

handed over to the Ukrainian border

guards. Usually these are men of

conscription age.

Um

next moving on. What does this mean for

Consequences for Ukrainians in the EU

Ukrainians in general right now? for all

Ukrainians. It doesn't matter where you

live. In Poland, in the Czech Republic,

in Germany, in the Netherlands, in

France, Croatia, Italy, it makes no

difference. That's it. Because

if temporary protection, for example,

will last until March 2027, the EU is

still allocating funds to support

temporary protection separately from the

general pact. Right? So those who are

under temporary protection, that's a

separate mechanism. and the new pack

does not directly cancel or change your

temporary protection. Right? But there

are three situations when the pack

concerns you right now. Option A is when

you have lost temporary protection and

are living for example without status.

And as it turns out there are a lot of

people like that as well. People don't

even know because they don't check their

status. And it's very easy to lose it,

including in Poland, because we know

that there are even technical errors

when you lose your status, even if you

haven't left Poland for more than 30

days. These situations are nothing new.

They started back in 2022 and continue

to this day. Um so if for any reason in

any European Union country your

temporary protection is not extended or

is canled then you fall under the

general system which has now become

stricter and it will be much easier to

deport you. Situation B you are moving

between EU countries. The shared

database means that your status in

Poland is visible in the Czech Republic

and vice versa.

So if you try to get new temporary

protection in another country after

already having it somewhere in the EU,

this will lead to fragmentation and

secondary movements which the pact is

now trying to stop. So theoretically

after June 12, 2026, according to this

pact, it may simply be impossible to

change your temporary protection status

from one country to another. If you

want, I can look into this topic.

more broadly in more detail,

specifically the change of temporary

protection after June 12th. And I will

also make a separate episode about this.

If you want this, write in the comments

so I can somehow respond to it.

Dish next third. This is when you apply

for asylum in parallel with temporary

protection. The new accelerated

procedures mean faster decisions, but

also less time to prepare your case. And

now this may also be possible because

many people in different EU countries

have I'm not talking about Poland. They

will be applying for asylum. Yes, for

submitting documents for asylum

for now. They even have temporary

protection to secure themselves after

March 4, 2027.

Next, when does the pack become fully

relevant? Like for all Ukrainians living

in the EU after the temporary protection

ends in March 2027 for those who haven't

received another status. And if of

course the temporary protection is not

extended. That's it. What exactly is

Long-term Status and Pathways to Citizenship

changing? First, accelerated review

procedures. Meaning, if you apply for

asylum after the temporary protection

ends, the decision will be made within

12 weeks, not in a year or a couple of

years. Next, second, tracking through

the EU system. Your entries and exits

are recorded automatically if you are

without status and stay in the EU. The

system also records this and you much

faster. They will start looking for you

faster than it was before this system

was implemented. And third, these are

expedited deportations for those who

have been denied. Fewer opportunities to

delay the process through appeals. And

one more important detail, friends,

the directive on long-term residence

currently excludes recipients of

temporary protection from its scope to

make the transition to long-term status

possible for Ukrainians. The European

Commission should review this

exclusion. That's how it is. So even 5

years under temporary protection today

does not automatically grant the right

to long-term status. This needs to be

resolved separately and some countries

are already moving in this direction.

And by the way regarding the fact that

temporary protection is not counted for

example towards the time required to

obtain citizenship or residency in the

European Union. There is a very

interesting article about obtaining

German passports.

Ukrainians under temporary protection.

This is a very interesting topic because

it turns out that in Germany there are

certain states where, as it turns out,

they are now considering the possibility

of issuing passports to Ukrainians who

have lived for five or more years under

temporary protection in Germany. Just

imagine, I'm already preparing this

topic. If you're interested, write in

the comments. The more comments there

are, the sooner I'll release this topic.

Practical Checklist and Final Advice

Next,

a practical checklist of what you need

to do right now. First, check whether

your temporary protection counts toward

the requirements for permanent

residency. This depends on each

individual country. In some countries,

yes. In others, no. The Netherlands has

already announced a three-year permit

after temporary protection. That's it.

It will already count toward that

period. Poland is the same, the Carter

Cooker. You can already start submitting

documents for it. You can also use it

next. Second, don't wait until March

2027 to apply for asylum if you have

grounds for it. Because asylum systems

will be overloaded after temporary

protection ends. When millions of people

submit their documents at the same time,

those who apply earlier will have an

advantage because they will get a

decision faster. Third, do not move

between European Union countries without

a clear understanding of your status in

the new country. That's it. And in fact,

remember that after June 12th, 2026,

which is less than 2 weeks away, there

may be a situation where you won't be

able to change your temporary protection

status from one country to another.

Although some countries are already

prohibiting it, let's be honest, there

are a number of EU countries that still

allow you to change your status without

any problems.

That's it.

And fourth, keep an eye on the decisions

of the specific country you live in. And

by the way, write in the comments which

country you're watching my videos from.

Each EU country implements the pact in

its own way within the framework of

common minimum standards. Poland,

Czecha, and Germany will announce their

details only after the official position

of the European Commission. So friends,

let's remember the date, June 12, 2026.

If you still have temporary protection

now, you are protected. If you don't

have it, then you are not protected. So,

look for options. Either obtain

temporary protection or get another

legal status. At the very least, start

working on it. That's it.

After March 27, 2027, if you don't have

another status, this strict system will

start working against you. That's it.

That's the situation we have right now.

Maybe it's neutral, maybe it's negative.

Decide for yourself based on your

specific situation. What do you think

about this? Write in the comments. I'd

be very interested to read your

thoughts. Also, let me know what other

topics you'd like me to cover. I'll be

happy to do it. Subscribe to the

channel. Turn on the notification bell

so you don't miss updates about new

videos. Thank you all. See you next

time.

 

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